The New York Mets, which continue to invest heavily to win the World Series, had some changes in their starting rotation this offseason. Jacob deGrom, the team’s ace, moved to Texas, but on the contrary, he brought in Justin Verlander to fill the position.
The Mets have been reluctant to give deGrom a contract longer than three years, after he hadn’t had a regular season due to injury in recent years. As the team knows deGrom’s physical condition the best, it can be seen that he was worried in his own way. Here, he could not beat Texas, who offered him a five-year contract, and instead brought Verlander and succeeded in setting up a short-term prescription.
Verlander and Max Scherzer, who were active as one-two punches in their Detroit days, are expected to draw attention from many fans as they spend their later years on the same team. These two players are certain to be inducted into the Hall of Fame in the future. Verlander won 244 career victories and Scherzer won 201. A total of 445 wins.
However, two players cannot lead a 162-game long race. Verlander, who is in his late 30s and even a 40-year-old veteran, cannot help but think about the risk of injury and physical problems. Considering the high ideals of the Mets, the third starter must do their part. And the Mets are expecting that share from Senga Kodai (30), one of the best pitchers in the Japanese league, who they recruited ahead of this season.
Senga is a player who can throw fastballs in the mid-150 km/h range at any time, and has a solid decision-making ball called a forkball (splitter) that has already been well received. He is also rich in experience. Then, how does the computer predict the first season of Senga? It comes to the conclusion that he is looking at it relatively positively.
‘ZiPS’, a statistical projection, produced expected results under the assumption that Senga will digest about 140⅓ innings in 22 games in 2023. ‘ZiPS’ predicted that Senga would record an average ERA of 3.46 with 10 wins and 7 losses, and the expected win contribution ratio (WAR) was 2.7. The team ranked next to Verlander (4.2) and Scherzer (3.3).
Statistical projections such as ‘ZiPS’ comprehensively consider recent grades and age. There is also a premise that grades decline with age. It is common to calculate game appearances or innings slightly conservatively. ‘ZiPS’ was written on the premise that Verlander, who belongs to the same team, will play 27 games and Scherzer will play 24 games. Considering this, Senga’s prediction is not bad.
I also looked at the detailed indicators pretty well 바카라. I expected the number of home runs per 9 innings to be somewhat high at 1.0, but the number of strikeouts per 9 innings of 9.1 and the number of walks per 9 innings of 2.5 are not bad proportionally. He had a high WAR of 3.6 in the most positive view (top 20% projection), and a 1.6 in the bottom 20% projection assuming a disappointing situation, so he thought that the worst would be avoided. The expected range of ERA was 2.97 to 4.16.
Senga signed a five-year contract with the Mets for 75 million dollars (approximately 92.9 billion won), and the average annual amount is 15 million dollars (approximately 18.6 billion won). It’s possible to conclude that even a bottom 20% projection would be worth around $15 million. If it’s not a serious injury, I thought I would do the basics. The fact that the New York media is relatively positive about the Senga contract is based on this calculation.
‘Fangraph’ evaluated Senga’s performance in 2023, saying, ‘ZiPS is optimistic that Senga will make a debut in the 3rd starting position in 2023’, and ‘(Verlander-Scherzer-Senga back) Jose Quintana and Carlos Carras. Cora has decent starters. If they’re all healthy, the Mets will have the best starting five in the majors this year.” As they all have health issues, it is expected that injury issues will ultimately make or break the Mets’ starting lineup this year.